施羅德投資集團策略研究主管Duncan Lamont

投資人不能忽視自然資本(即直接或間接為人們創造價值的自然元素)在投資中的重要性，因為氣候變化、生物多樣性喪失等的風險太大。

自然資本涵蓋所有生物，以及供給有限的事物如土壤和礦物。自然資本帶來的價值包括生態系統運作，如清潔的空氣和水、糧食、生物多樣性、防洪和休閒娛樂。它對經濟活動至關重要，世界經濟論壇指出，估計有44兆美元的經濟價值依靠自然資本，相當於全球GDP的50％以上。

但不應只從經濟角度來看自然資本，它還包括對抗氣候變化，許多自然資本的元素－如森林、泥炭沼澤、紅樹林、海草、鹽沼與土壤－在碳封存的過程中從大氣中吸收碳。據估計，自然資本可以為減緩氣候變化貢獻約30％，以實現《巴黎協定》所需的1.5℃升溫目標。

 

它與投資有何關係？

由於自然資本支撐著許多經濟活動，它若惡化將使得經濟活動面臨風險。對自然資本的投資可以帶來財務與非財務的利益。在投資當中納入自然資本有三種方式：

1. 將投資資產、具體分配到自然資本中。從中打造、保護保存，甚或提高其價值。

2. 在評估投資風險和成長率時，將自然資本的影響考慮在內，並在資產配置時使用這些資訊。

3. 參與議合你所投資的公司，以提高他們對自然資本的認識。鼓勵他們將這一點納入決策中，並轉向對自然資本更永續的方法。

提高數據的品質和普遍性會使第2點與第3點變得更容易，第1點卻較具挑戰性。為了吸引大部分的法人如退休基金和保險公司，投資必須產生可預期的報酬，無法提供財務報酬且僅出於正向影響的投資計畫就變成了慈善事業。

因此，可以產生碳補償(carbon offsets，能消弭1公噸二氧化碳排放量的工具)的自然資本計畫，比較能引起多數人興趣。他們可以直接投資「碳補償」的自然資本計畫，而無需在其他地方購買，也能更確定這些碳補償的品質和來源。在實現零碳排的動力之下，投資人可能會繼續這樣做。如果處理得當，碳補償計畫可以幫助自然資本的推行，同時在當地社區創造就業機會。例如，巴西的造紙公司教會當地農民如何植樹、以確保生物多樣性不會喪失，以及如何以永續的方式管理伐木。

 

自然資本風險對投資組合的影響

透過消耗和危害自然資本來增加自身成長的經濟或企業，可能會面臨長期發展的阻礙、並帶來成長風險。一個明顯的例子：就是過度耕作或是過度捕撈。短期內雖然可提高產量，但長遠來看它會破壞土壤品質與消耗魚群。更廣泛地來說，這些對公司都是風險。包括營運和供應鏈破壞、監管風險、聲譽風險和財務風險。

這些總體影響在經濟層面可能是負面的，例如生產力下降、價格變動、資本破壞與勞動市場摩擦。下表凸顯出高度依賴自然資本的產業，無論是直接營運還是透過供應鏈，和自然有關的風險與投資組合密切相關。

表：對自然資源依賴之產業和其供應鏈的附加價值毛額(Gross Value Add, GVA)百分比

資料來源：世界經濟論壇、資誠聯合會計師事務所。

 

除了對自然的依賴，在投資時、另一個重要考量因素是對自然的影響。損害自然資本以追求成長的企業很可能發現這種成長的永續性遭到破壞。作為較能捍衛自然資本的企業，將更有能力蓬勃發展。藉由這種「依賴－影響」的角度分析投資，投資人可以更深入、全面地了解其投資風險與前景，進而實現更好的決策。

原文https://www.schroders.com/en/lu/professional-investor/insights/markets/investing-in-natural-capital--benefits-and-barriers/

 

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Investing in natural capital – benefits and barriers

Duncan Lamont, CFA

Head of Research and Analytics

 

Investors cannot afford to ignore natural capital – the elements of nature that directly or indirectly produce value to people – in their investments. The financial risks and non-financial risks, such as climate change and biodiversity loss, are too great.

 

Natural capital covers all living things (biodiversity), as well as things which exist in finite supply, such as soil and minerals. The value of natural capital includes ecosystem services, such as clean air and water, food, biodiversity, flood defences, and recreation. It is vital for economic activity – an estimated $44 trillion of economic value depends on natural resources, equivalent to more than 50% of global GDP, according to the World Economic Forum. But natural capital should not just be viewed through an economic lens. It also covers the fight against climate change. Many elements of natural capital – such as forestry, peat bogs, mangroves, kelp, salt marshes, and soil – absorb carbon from the atmosphere in a process known as carbon sequestration. It has been estimated that efforts focused on natural capital could contribute about 30% of the climate mitigation needed to deliver on the Paris Agreement 1.5°C target.

 

 

HOW DOES IT RELATE TO INVESTMENT?

As natural capital underpins so much economic activity its degradation puts that economic activity at risk. And investment in it can have financial, as well as nonfinancial benefits. There are three main ways that you can take account of natural capital in your investments: 1. Make a specific allocation to projects that establish, preserve, protect, and enhance it. 2. Incorporate an investment’s impact on natural capital when assessing its risks and the sustainability of its growth rate. Use this information when allocating assets. 3. Engage with companies you are invested in, to increase awareness of how they affect, and rely on, natural capital. Encourage them to incorporate this in their decision making and shift towards approaches which are more sustainable with respect to natural capital.

Improving data quality and availability is making it easier to do the second and third today. And this is only going to get better.

The first is more challenging. In order to attract most institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, an investment has to generate an acceptable expected financial return. Projects which offer no financial return, and are done for positive impact alone, are philanthropic, or charitable, work. Projects which yield carbon offsets – instruments which reflect an emissions reduction of one metric tonne of CO2 (explained in more detail in the paper) – have attracted most interest. They are likely to continue to do so, given the collective drive towards net zero emissions. Carbon offset projects can be done in a way that is sensitive to natural capital, while also creating jobs among local communities. For example, paper companies in Brazil have taught local farmers how to plant trees so biodiversity is not lost, and how to manage treecutting in a sustainable manner.

 

NATURAL CAPITAL RISK AS AN INPUT TO PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

An economy or company which generates growth by depleting or degrading its natural capital is likely to face long-term headwinds and put its growth at risk. An obvious example would be over-farming or overfishing. While that could boost output in the short run, it would hurt it in the long run by ruining soil quality and depleting fish populations. Thinking more generally, there are a number of risks for companies. These include disruptions to operations and supply chains, regulatory risk, reputational risks, and financial risks (e.g. through higher insurance premiums and/or financing costs). The aggregate impacts of these can be negative at an economy-wide level e.g. reduced productivity, price shifts, capital destruction, and labour market frictions. The table below highlights sectors that have high levels of dependence on nature, either through their direct operations or through the value chain: nature-related risks are deeply interlinked with investment portfolios.

 

As well as dependency on nature, another important consideration when analysing investments is impact on nature. A business that harms natural capital to generate its growth is likely to find the sustainability of that growth impaired. Businesses that are better custodians will be better positioned to thrive. By analysing investments through this dependency-impact lens, investors can obtain a deeper and fuller understanding of their risks and prospects. This can enable better decision making.

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